Nottinghamshire Vs Durham at Trent Bridge
Looking at Durham's record in this competition, it's striking how low the bar for qualification to the quarter finals is, since they've won just half of their games, and there are two sides in Hampshire and Kent with even worse records who made it through. Notts on the other hand have a very impressive record, winning five of their eight games, and only losing one, a game in which Kent chased down 336 to win thanks to a Sam Billings century. These contrasting records are reflected in the market, with the hosts currently trading at 1.51 and Durham at 2.94 on the Betfair Exchange. Durham, RLODC defending champions, have won three of their four away games, and beat Notts comprehensively in the semi-finals of this tournament last season through 164 from Ben Stokes. They may be a touch of value here, but I won't be taking any positions prior to the start of the match.
Notts are a side whose games I love to trade, especially when they're batting. They have a hugely talented batting line-up, and one which bats all the way down, but one which also loses early wickets a lot, as discussed here, often losing three wickets early on. Steve Mullany bats at six, token second-rate Aussie (obligatory in white ball cricket, especially the IPL) Dan Christian at seven, and veteran wicket keeper Chris Read bats at eight, meaning Notts have a hugely strong lower order. This lower order is one which has won games and set big totals having seen early wickets go down on numerous occasions, and this is what I'll be looking to trade today, backing the home side should these early wickets go down, especially if they are chasing.
This also means that there is often plenty of value in backing these guys in the top batsmen market, and the standouts to me here are Brendan Taylor at 8.5, Mullaney at 17, and Read at a massive 34 with Ladbrokes. Riki Wessels at 5s also looks a touch of value given the form he has been in in this competition recently.
There is some rain forecast for this afternoon in Nottingham, so I'd imagine both sides will be looking to field if they win the toss, anticipating that Duckworth-Lewis will come into play. Bear this in mind if you're trading this game, and good luck.