Sydney Cricket Ground - 16th January 2016
- Two sides struggling for form face off at the SCG in the Sydney derby, with the Thunder having now lost four in a row since winning their first three, and the Sixers having won just two games in the tournament, the fewest on any side.
- Looking at the ground stats for the SCG, we can see there is a huge bias towards the side winning the toss, with 76% of the 21 games here so far won by the side winning the toss. It's also a ground where a decent score batting first tends to win the game, with 90% of scores over 160 in the first innings defended successfully.
- The Sixers, as we can see in the BBL05 Team Stats page, have the lowest average score when batting first at 153, where the Thunder average the highest total, with 174. The Thunder also have the second lowest average score conceded when batting first, at 152, and so we could see a low score should the Sixers bat first.
- With the Sixers all but out of the tournament, and the Thunder needing a win to give themselves the best chance of qualifying, this is essentially a must-win game for the Thunder; a win would mean the Renegades have to beat the Strikers on Monday for the Thunder to miss out on the play-offs. Backing sides in must-win games is always a bit nervy, as the pressure can get to players, but with the experience in the Thunder line up, the 1.73 available on them looks a touch big.
- In the Thunders seven games so far, Andre Russell has been their top wicket taker on four occasions, and joint top on two. With this record, the 4s available on this from Ladbrokes looks big, and a price worth taking.
- The Sixers batting in BBL05 has been generally poor, barring opener Michael Lumb, who has scores of 34, 4, 62, 15, 31, 47 and 47. He looked in a spot of bother against Badree in the Sixers last game, but toughed it out and went on to make 47. With Farad Ahmed the Thunders only spin option not in any wicket taking form, backing Lumb to make 22 or more is a good bet for me.
Back Sydney Thunder to win at 1.73 with PaddyPower
Back Andre Russell for top Thunder wicket taker at 4.00 with Ladbrokes
Back Michael Lumb to score over 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes